Malaysian fuel prices depend on global oil prices, specifically Brent Crude and MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore). So what can we expect for 2026? Industry experts point to several key factors that will shape market direction.
Factor 1: OPEC+ Production Policy
OPEC+ has maintained voluntary production cuts to support prices. In 2026, several member countries face internal fiscal pressure and may try to increase exports, which could drag prices down if OPEC+ quotas open up.
Forecast: Brent Crude stays in the USD 75-95/barrel range barring major disruptions.
Factor 2: Chinese Demand
China is the world's largest oil buyer. Its sluggish economic growth in 2024-2025 dampened global demand. A Chinese economic recovery in 2026 could boost demand and push prices up.
Factor 3: Green Energy Transition
Investment in EVs and renewable energy is reducing long-term crude demand. But the process is slow, its impact on 2026 is still small compared to OPEC+ and Chinese demand.
Factor 4: Geopolitics
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and US-Iran relations can all trigger sudden price spikes. Experts say geopolitical risk is the biggest wildcard for 2026.
Factor 5: US Interest Rates
If the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the dollar weakens and oil prices tend to rise. Conversely, high interest rates strengthen the dollar and depress oil prices.
Major Expert Forecasts
- IEA (International Energy Agency): Brent averaging USD 80-85 for 2026
- Goldman Sachs: More aggressive, USD 85-95 with upside risk
- World Bank: Conservative, USD 75-82 with downside if demand weakens
What This Means for Malaysian Pump Prices
If Brent stays in the USD 80-90 range, Malaysian RON 97 will likely fluctuate between RM 4.50-5.50/litre through 2026. Unsubsidised RON 95 may reach RM 4.00-4.80/litre. BUDI 95 users are shielded because the RM 1.99 subsidy price is fixed.
No one can predict oil prices precisely. But by understanding the factors behind the market, you can make smarter financial decisions for 2026.
