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Global Oil Price Forecast 2026: What Experts Are Saying

OPEC+, China demand, geopolitics, factors shaping global oil prices in 2026.

By Aiman Hakim
Editor, HargaMinyak.my · 5 Feb 2026 · 6 min read
Global Oil Price Forecast 2026: What Experts Are Saying

Malaysian fuel prices depend on global oil prices, specifically Brent Crude and MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore). So what can we expect for 2026? Industry experts point to several key factors that will shape market direction.

Factor 1: OPEC+ Production Policy

OPEC+ has maintained voluntary production cuts to support prices. In 2026, several member countries face internal fiscal pressure and may try to increase exports, which could drag prices down if OPEC+ quotas open up.

Forecast: Brent Crude stays in the USD 75-95/barrel range barring major disruptions.

Factor 2: Chinese Demand

China is the world's largest oil buyer. Its sluggish economic growth in 2024-2025 dampened global demand. A Chinese economic recovery in 2026 could boost demand and push prices up.

Factor 3: Green Energy Transition

Investment in EVs and renewable energy is reducing long-term crude demand. But the process is slow, its impact on 2026 is still small compared to OPEC+ and Chinese demand.

Factor 4: Geopolitics

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and US-Iran relations can all trigger sudden price spikes. Experts say geopolitical risk is the biggest wildcard for 2026.

Factor 5: US Interest Rates

If the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the dollar weakens and oil prices tend to rise. Conversely, high interest rates strengthen the dollar and depress oil prices.

Major Expert Forecasts

What This Means for Malaysian Pump Prices

If Brent stays in the USD 80-90 range, Malaysian RON 97 will likely fluctuate between RM 4.50-5.50/litre through 2026. Unsubsidised RON 95 may reach RM 4.00-4.80/litre. BUDI 95 users are shielded because the RM 1.99 subsidy price is fixed.

No one can predict oil prices precisely. But by understanding the factors behind the market, you can make smarter financial decisions for 2026.

Fact-checked against official sources: data.gov.my and Ministry of Finance Malaysia.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is global (Brent) oil price expected to be in 2026?

Based on the forecasts cited in the article, Brent Crude is projected to stay in the USD 75-95 per barrel range through 2026, barring major disruptions. The IEA expects an average of USD 80-85, Goldman Sachs is more aggressive at USD 85-95, while the World Bank is more conservative at USD 75-82. These are projections only and actual prices may differ.

What determines Malaysian fuel prices based on world oil prices?

Malaysian fuel prices depend on global oil prices, mainly the Brent Crude and MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore) benchmarks. When global prices rise or fall, local pump prices such as RON 97 and unsubsidised RON 95 are affected too. The main factors moving the market include OPEC+ policy, Chinese demand, geopolitics and US interest rates.

Will BUDI 95 users be affected if world oil prices rise in 2026?

No. Eligible BUDI 95 users are shielded from world oil price swings because the subsidised RM 1.99 per litre price is fixed. Only unsubsidised prices such as RON 97 and unsubsidised RON 95 will move with the global market through 2026.

What is the biggest risk that could cause oil prices to spike in 2026?

According to experts cited in the article, geopolitical risk is the biggest wildcard for 2026. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran relations could all trigger sudden price spikes. Other factors such as a Chinese economic recovery and OPEC+ production policy could also push prices higher.

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